Daily Brief
Track record: every put, graded
Every cash-secured put the daily brief has published, held to expiration and scored against the stock's actual closing price. Losers included. Picks from Apr 4, 26, expirations through Oct 9, 26. Covered call picks are being reworked and will be added once the new selection has a record of its own.
Cash-secured puts
391 picks · avg 39 daysProfitable
79%
Expired worthless
69%
Return on capital
+2.21%
+21% annualized
Median per pick
+3.93%
mean +1.06%
Worst pick
-46.4%
best +12.5%
1 contract each
$178,768
total P&L
Over the same windows the stocks themselves moved +4.67% on average. A put caps the upside at the premium, so in a strong rally buying the shares outright can do better. The put's job is income with a cushion below the price, not beating the stock.
Hot streak picks vs the rest
The Daily Brief tags a put Hot streak when the stock is up 50% or more over the 90 days before the pick. Those premiums are richer, and so is the risk if the run reverses.
Hot streak
150 picksProfitable
67%
Return on capital
+2.06%
Everything else
230 picksProfitable
86%
Return on capital
+2.26%
The tag started on October 8, 2026. For earlier picks the 90-day move is reconstructed from daily closing prices, so the split shows how the tag would have sorted them.
How picks are graded
- Held to expiration. No rolls, no early profit-taking, no early assignment. Real traders manage positions; this grades the pick, not the management.
- An assigned put is marked at the expiration-day close, as if sold then. Recovery afterwards is not counted here; see After assignment.
- Premium is the mid price the brief published. No commissions, no slippage, so real fills would be slightly worse.
- A pick repeated on several days counts once, at the first day's premium.
- Return on capital is total P&L divided by capital at risk: the strike, since the put is cash-secured.
After assignment
Assignment isn't the end of a wheel trade. The grades above treat an assigned put as sold at the expiration-day close, but wheel traders usually keep the shares and sell covered calls at or above their cost basis (the strike minus the premium collected) until they can exit at a profit.
Assigned picks
123
Back above cost basis
43
35% · before call premium
Still below
80
65%
Holding isn't free of risk: until the shares are sold, they carry the stock's full downside, and calls written at or above a cost basis far above the price pay very little. Prices as of Oct 14.
What happened in July 2026
July is the weak month in this record: 87 puts expired, 43% were profitable, and together they lost 3.8% of the capital at risk. Every other month so far has been profitable on 85% or more of picks.
Most July puts were opened in late May and June, after a strong run in high-volatility growth stocks: space (LUNR, RKLB), quantum computing and AI infrastructure (IONQ, IREN, AXTI, AAOI, MRVL), and a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL). Their implied volatility made their premiums the richest on the screen, so they ranked highly. When those stocks reversed, they fell 22% on average over the holding period, some by 40–55%, and 76% of the July puts were assigned.
It's the clearest example in this record of the risk the wheel carries: premium is often rich because the stock can fall hard. We've left July in every figure on this page.
By expiration month
| Month | Picks | Profitable | Return on capital | Stock moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 17 | 88% | +2.62% | +7.71% |
| Sep 2026 | 82 | 85% | +3.44% | +7.38% |
| Aug 2026 | 82 | 89% | +3.40% | -0.68% |
| Jul 2026 | 87 | 43% | -3.76% | -22.16% |
| Jun 2026 | 80 | 93% | +4.50% | +21.23% |
| May 2026 | 43 | 93% | +3.36% | +31.98% |
Every pick
| Brief | Pick | Premium | Price then → at expiry | Outcome | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 26 | DELL $430 put · Oct 9, 26 | $25.62 | $456.01 → $586.06 | Expired OTM | +5.96% |
| Sep 8, 26 | TQQQ $65 put · Oct 9, 26 | $2.06 | $72.16 → $81.28 | Expired OTM | +3.17% |
| Sep 1, 26 | CLF $10.5 put · Oct 2, 26 | $0.44 | $11.54 → $11.32 | Expired OTM | +4.19% |
| Sep 2, 26 | COIN $160 put · Oct 2, 26 | $6.10 | $174.96 → $183.00 | Expired OTM | +3.81% |
| Aug 27, 26 | DELL $425 put · Oct 2, 26Hot streak | $26.67 | $472.26 → $562.52 | Expired OTM | +6.28% |
| Aug 27, 26 | ETN $415 put · Oct 2, 26 | $18.28 | $416.04 → $436.11 | Expired OTM | +4.40% |
| Sep 2, 26 | HOOD $94 put · Oct 2, 26 | $2.73 | $106.99 → $112.74 | Expired OTM | +2.90% |
| Aug 27, 26 | HOOD $95 put · Oct 2, 26 | $2.60 | $109.76 → $112.74 | Expired OTM | +2.74% |
| Aug 31, 26 | LMT $545 put · Oct 2, 26 | $10.25 | $557.78 → $505.41 | Assigned | -5.38% |
| Aug 26, 26 | MDT $86 put · Oct 2, 26 | $1.75 | $92.02 → $86.38 | Expired OTM | +2.03% |
| Aug 25, 26 | MRVL $200 put · Oct 2, 26 | $7.53 | $240.38 → $272.29 | Expired OTM | +3.77% |
| Sep 1, 26 | MSTR $120 put · Oct 2, 26 | $6.22 | $124.88 → $160.01 | Expired OTM | +5.18% |
| Aug 21, 26 | PANW $315 put · Oct 2, 26 | $11.40 | $357.87 → $403.24 | Expired OTM | +3.62% |
| Aug 20, 26 | S $19 put · Oct 2, 26 | $0.80 | $20.94 → $25.06 | Expired OTM | +4.21% |
| Aug 28, 26 | XLB $52.5 put · Oct 2, 26 | $1.28 | $53.18 → $48.86 | Assigned | -4.50% |
| Aug 27, 26×2 | XOM $152.5 put · Oct 2, 26 | $3.05 | $156.44 → $164.01 | Expired OTM | +2.00% |
| Aug 26, 26 | XOP $175 put · Oct 2, 26 | $4.42 | $184.46 → $184.93 | Expired OTM | +2.53% |
| Aug 26, 26 | DELL $400 put · Sep 25, 26 | $15.22 | $463.82 → $562.89 | Expired OTM | +3.81% |
| Aug 20, 26×3 | DELL $375 put · Sep 25, 26Hot streak | $16.18 | $434.78 → $562.89 | Expired OTM | +4.31% |
| Aug 24, 26 | ETSY $75 put · Sep 25, 26 | $1.59 | $87.03 → $68.44 | Assigned | -6.63% |
| Aug 18, 26 | FCX $64 put · Sep 25, 26 | $2.46 | $66.32 → $72.31 | Expired OTM | +3.84% |
| Aug 25, 26 | GM $82 put · Sep 25, 26 | $1.48 | $85.81 → $82.63 | Expired OTM | +1.80% |
| Aug 25, 26 | HOOD $94 put · Sep 25, 26 | $2.71 | $112.09 → $119.40 | Expired OTM | +2.88% |
| Aug 21, 26 | HOOD $85 put · Sep 25, 26 | $2.10 | $108.13 → $119.40 | Expired OTM | +2.47% |
| Aug 20, 26 | MRVL $210 put · Sep 25, 26 | $9.85 | $251.01 → $261.94 | Expired OTM | +4.69% |
| Aug 21, 26 | MU $875 put · Sep 25, 26 | $35.77 | $966.78 → $1082.28 | Expired OTM | +4.09% |
| Aug 24, 26 | NVDA $200 put · Sep 25, 26 | $4.85 | $208.48 → $225.07 | Expired OTM | +2.42% |
| Aug 20, 26 | PANW $325 put · Sep 25, 26 | $12.93 | $349.56 → $374.74 | Expired OTM | +3.98% |
| Aug 24, 26×3 | PANW $315 put · Sep 25, 26 | $9.30 | $350.90 → $374.74 | Expired OTM | +2.95% |
| Aug 26, 26 | SLB $50 put · Sep 25, 26 | $1.06 | $53.60 → $51.54 | Expired OTM | +2.12% |
| Aug 13, 26 | TQQQ $66 put · Sep 25, 26 | $2.67 | $77.15 → $79.60 | Expired OTM | +4.05% |
| Aug 7, 26 | AAOI $100 put · Sep 18, 26 | $6.80 | $135.63 → $105.17 | Expired OTM | +6.80% |
| Aug 4, 26 | ABNB $140 put · Sep 18, 26 | $4.20 | $149.92 → $166.22 | Expired OTM | +3.00% |
| Aug 10, 26 | ALK $45 put · Sep 18, 26 | $1.57 | $47.26 → $40.54 | Assigned | -6.42% |
| Aug 5, 26 | AMAT $470 put · Sep 18, 26 | $30.05 | $534.24 → $444.57 | Assigned | +0.98% |
| Aug 17, 26 | AMD $470 put · Sep 18, 26 | $16.00 | $506.00 → $559.82 | Expired OTM | +3.40% |
| Aug 10, 26 | ANET $170 put · Sep 18, 26 | $5.60 | $191.52 → $199.39 | Expired OTM | +3.29% |
| Jun 26, 26 | ARWR $70 put · Sep 18, 26 | $6.45 | $78.89 → $66.48 | Assigned | +4.19% |
| Jun 25, 26 | ARWR $72.5 put · Sep 18, 26 | $8.99 | $79.27 → $66.48 | Assigned | +4.10% |
| Aug 13, 26×2 | CLF $11 put · Sep 18, 26 | $0.35 | $12.15 → $12.50 | Expired OTM | +3.18% |
| Aug 4, 26 | CLF $10 put · Sep 18, 26 | $0.35 | $12.31 → $12.50 | Expired OTM | +3.50% |
| Aug 5, 26 | CLS $320 put · Sep 18, 26 | $18.10 | $362.76 → $332.63 | Expired OTM | +5.66% |
| Aug 18, 26 | CRWD $192.5 put · Sep 18, 26 | $6.10 | $212.92 → $237.65 | Expired OTM | +3.17% |
| Jul 31, 26 | CRWD $170 put · Sep 18, 26Hot streak | $8.57 | $190.86 → $237.65 | Expired OTM | +5.04% |
| Aug 11, 26 | DDOG $230 put · Sep 18, 26 | $9.13 | $246.78 → $229.92 | Assigned | +3.93% |
| Aug 12, 26×2 | DE $580 put · Sep 18, 26 | $12.95 | $619.77 → $683.99 | Expired OTM | +2.23% |
| Aug 14, 26 | DE $570 put · Sep 18, 26 | $10.95 | $608.85 → $683.99 | Expired OTM | +1.92% |
| Aug 7, 26×2 | DELL $380 put · Sep 18, 26Hot streak | $26.08 | $453.77 → $568.06 | Expired OTM | +6.86% |
| Aug 6, 26×2 | DELL $400 put · Sep 18, 26Hot streak | $36.17 | $437.65 → $568.06 | Expired OTM | +9.04% |
| Aug 4, 26 | DELL $370 put · Sep 18, 26Hot streak | $21.00 | $467.27 → $568.06 | Expired OTM | +5.68% |
See today's picks
The brief publishes every trading morning. A free account shows the full list.
Today's daily briefHypothetical results. These are not trades anyone placed; they show what the published picks would have returned under the rules above. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk, including assignment and the loss of more than the premium received. Nothing here is investment advice. See the full disclaimer.