September 22, 2026
VIX at 14.64: Time to Get Selective, Not Greedy
Key Lesson: When Your Covered Calls Go Deep ITM: Separate the Option P&L from the Stock P&L
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VIX sits at 14.64 this week, a level that tells you premium sellers need to work harder for the same return we got a month ago. Breadth is stuck at 55% of stocks above their 200-day SMA — not bad, not great, just a market that hasn't fully committed to a direction. SPY is basically flat on the week (+0.05%) but up 2.63% over five days, so the short-term trend is still up even though today's tape looked sleepy.
Key Lesson
When Your Covered Calls Go Deep ITM: Separate the Option P&L from the Stock P&L
This week's MARA, IREN, and IONQ positions are a perfect illustration of why you can't judge a covered call trade by the option leg alone. Look at total return — premium collected plus stock appreciation minus your original cost basis — before deciding whether to roll, let it get called away, or take assignment relief. A 'losing' short call on a stock that's ripped higher is often still a winning trade overall.
Featured Trade Analysis
$COPX
This $80 CSP for October 16th was sold when IVR was a moderate 43%, and it's sitting comfortably at +$42 mark-to-market with 24 days still on the clock. Copper miners have been a quiet steady performer and this position needed no drama to work.
Boring, on-track CSPs are the backbone of the wheel — you don't need fireworks to make money.
$DRAM
Sold the $50 CSP into a healthy 65% IVR and collected $1.40, and it's already up $120 with 24 days left. This is exactly the setup I look for — rich premium on a name I'd be fine owning at $50.
High IVR at entry gives you a real cushion — this is the kind of premium worth chasing.
$MARA
This $13.5 covered call is showing a -$224 MTM loss but a +$862 unrealized gain on the underlying shares — a classic case of the stock running past my strike. With only 10 days to expiration, I'm watching closely to decide whether to let it get called away or roll up and out.
A covered call 'loss' on the option leg isn't a real loss if your shares are appreciating faster — look at the whole picture, not just the option P&L.
$IREN
Similar story here: the $47 call sold for $1.03 is down -$323 on paper while the stock itself is up +$154 unrealized. IREN has been a monster mover this year and my strike simply got run over.
When a covered call goes deep ITM on a strong breakout, decide early whether you're happy being called away at a profit or want to roll for more premium.
$IONQ
With just 3 days to expiration, this $50 call is up +$170 on the option but down -$488 unrealized on the shares — IONQ has been volatile and my cost basis is underwater relative to current price. I'll likely let this expire and reassess whether to keep selling calls or hold for a bounce.
Covered calls generate income even when the underlying disappoints, but they don't fully protect you from a real drawdown in the stock.
IV Environment
No significant IV rank movers this week, which lines up with the calm VIX reading of 14.64. That said, several individual names — MPC, NUE, and BITO among them — are sitting at IVR of 98-100%, so elevated premium opportunities still exist even in a quiet broad market.
Top Cash-Secured Put Candidates
| Ticker | Strike | Expiry | Premium | IV Rank | Ann ROC | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $MPC | $360 | Nov 20 | $19.15 | 100 | 33% | Elevated 100% IVR combined with strong uptrend and low beta makes this a high-premium, relatively low-drama energy play. |
| $NUE | $230 | Nov 20 | $8.3 | 98 | 22% | Steel sector name with sky-high IVR of 98%, though the break below the 50-day SMA and soft RSI of 39 mean this is a name to size down on. |
| $UAL | $104 | Oct 30 | $2.53 | 76 | 23% | Airlines are holding above both moving averages with a 76% IVR, giving a clean industrial-adjacent diversifier away from tech and crypto. |
| $GOLD | $40 | Nov 20 | $1.88 | 76 | 29% | A low-beta miner with 76% IVR and a community track record of success this month makes it a repeat candidate worth another look. |
| $CLS | $330 | Oct 23 | $14.25 | 51 | 51% | AI-infrastructure exposure with solid 30-day momentum (+14%) and a healthy annualized ROC of 51% for those comfortable with the delta. |
Top Covered Call Candidates
| Ticker | Strike | Expiry | Premium | IV Rank | Ann ROC | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $MPC | $480 | Nov 20 | $14.4 | 100 | 19% | Maxed-out 100% IVR and low beta make this an ideal name to sell calls against for steady, low-volatility income. |
| $META | $850 | Oct 23 | $16.15 | 70 | 22% | Strong momentum (+35.8% 30-day) and rich 70% IVR make this a premium mega-cap call-selling candidate if you're already holding shares. |
| $MSTR | $205 | Oct 30 | $5.33 | 54 | 25% | Crypto-proxy volatility delivers a healthy annROC of 25%, though the 49.9% 30-day surge means this strike could get tested fast. |
| $INTC | $150 | Oct 23 | $4.28 | 55 | 34% | Semiconductor strength continues with RSI at 71 and a solid 34% annROC, a good candidate for existing INTC shareholders looking to monetize the rally. |
| $ARM | $360 | Oct 23 | $16.55 | 62 | 54% | A 54% annROC on strong momentum, but the high beta of 3.89 means you should only write this against shares you're truly willing to cap. |
Quick Tips This Week
- →With VIX under 15, don't force trades into low-premium names just to stay active — patience preserves your edge.
- →Neutral breadth (55% above the 200-day) means this is a stock-picker's market, not a blanket-bullish one, so lean on individual technicals over broad market direction.
- →Always double-check the earnings calendar before opening new positions — a handful of names report this week and IV crush or gap risk isn't worth the extra premium.
The wheel rewards patience and process far more than prediction, so keep sizing sensibly and let the premium do the compounding for you.
Trade logically,
James Henson
Founder, Option Wheel Logic
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